Page 6 - National Poultry Newspaper

Drivers of consumption volatility in pork industry
Marketing Matters
changed rapidly, and in the defining two weeks of madness due to the close of cafés and restaurants that changed to about 90 percent in-home and 10 percent takeaway, which has possibly risen to about 15 percent now.
APL calculation based in part on data reported by Nielsen through its Homescan Service for the meat category four weeks to March 22, 2020 versus a year ago, for the total Australian market according to the Nielsen stand- ard product hierarchy. Copyright © 2020 The Nielsen Company.
THE COVID-19 pan- demic has significantly disrupted our lives in re- cent weeks and is causing a high degree of demand and supply irregularity.
cessed meat 18 percent versus the same period in 2019.
now have higher volumes stored at home.
encing in-home destock- ing to some extent.
added further headaches. APL has been collabo- rating with exporters to keep export channels open. The world is still short of pork and we are trying to
For our industry, this is causing a high degree of volatility, particularly for uncontracted pigs.
The problem being food- service is a major source of demand for cuts like ribs and bellies.
Some commercial play- ers will see this change as disastrous and for others it’ll be an opportunity.
get more options for sales. We are looking to sup- port further gains in in- ternational sales, which showed growth in Feb- ruary in Vietnam, Hong
As I see it, there are five causes to the short-term situation.
Restrictions in stores have impacted these two cuts in particular and that has driven down wholesale carcass value.
This is when supermar- ket shelves were bare of meat.
Wholesalers that supply retail will see opportu- nities at the expense of foodservice-focused busi- nesses.
Kong and Singapore.
We are still investigating every option, including po- tential government-funded charity meat donations of roast pork for Foodbank
Grocery shopping in- creased as people substi- tuted food eaten out-of- home to in-home.
Therefore substitution should have increased gro- cery food sales by around 22 percent.
Which means people have unfamiliar cuts and species in their freezers.
Some supply chains were able to flex very quickly, while others continue to adjust.
The change saw a rapid increase in retail meat sales, a little faster than expected.
There were weeks in the period from March to Easter where grocery sales were 35 percent up on the same week a year ago – that’s when in-home stocks went through the roof.
Which may occur quick- ly, conversely, it may occur slowly.
In the pre-pandemic sta- ble market about 74 per- cent of food was bought for in-home consumption and 26 percent for out-of- home.
Nielsen data reveals in the four weeks to March 22 grocery dollar sales in- creased 34 percent, fresh meat 25 percent and pro-
People bought more of the meat they are most fa- miliar with.
APL doubled versatility and how-to-cook activities to ensure people will know how to use their pork pur- chases and have a satisfy- ing eating experience.
Predicting supply flows will be difficult, with the added complexities of government COVID-19 re- strictions, freight changes and border controls, and prices for pigs will be vola- tile.
and similar organisations. Though the over-supply of meat varieties in the week commencing April 20 postponed the conver-
Consumer behaviour
As per the table indicat- ing beef mince driving freezer stocks, meat sales tended to be relatively cheap cuts, so consumers
This included traditional media as well as podcasts, catch-up T V, YouTube, Facebook, Instagram and digital partnerships – to get our messages to con- sumers while they are con- fined to their homes.
sation, we will try again. This is a challenging time for everyone and the situation is evolving
15.1
Beef mince driving the freezer stock up followed by chicken breast. Bacon in the top ve.
10.5
7.7
% Contribution to total meat volume growth
5.7 4.9 4.9 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.8 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.1
Like any balanced sys- tem, when the meat supply equilibrium is rocked by extreme actions it responds by over-reacting.
For exporters, the near standstill of international aircraft movement has
changing purchasing be- haviour, we’ll keep work- ing to help them get some pork on their forks.
First, pork and beef mince get pulled forward to satisfy demand.
So now we’re experienc- ing a system that is over- supplying what was panic- bought in previous weeks.
Everyone knows it has to end – people probably aren’t eating more – but no one knows when.
Second, we are experi-
That’s unfortunate given that this time of year is usually when pork produc- tion improves.
quickly.
While our consumers are
I believe this has undesir- able consequences.
Australian help for swine fever fight
AUSTRALIA has mobilised biosecurity, logistics and com- munications experts to work with Papua New Guinean coun- terparts to deal with an outbreak of Afri- can swine fever.
cific Horticultural and Agricultural Market Access Plus program.
Agriculture Minister David Littleproud and Foreign Affairs Min- ister Senator Marise Payne said the Austral- ian government’s urgent multi-agency response aimed to slow the spread of ASF in Papua New Guinea and pre- vent its incursion onto our shores.
“We are assisting PNG with technical assistance through the provision of a veterinarian, help to establish a local dis- ease control centre and the provision of logistics support at the location of the outbreak,” Minister Payne said.
“With the confirma- tion of ASF in our near neighbour, our biosecu- rity measures are more important than ever because it could dev- astate Australia’s pork industry if it were to arrive here,” Minister Littleproud said.
“A key part of our re- sponse is the deploy- ment of a risk commu- nications specialist to increase public aware- ness, which includes the production of targeted messages.”
“We commend Pap- ua New Guinea for its quick action in respond- ing to the outbreak, and we will continue to of- fer support to Papua New Guinea as it works to contain this disease.”
Minister Payne said the support is whole- of-government, with the ADF and AFP working closely with PNG coun- terparts to establish checkpoints to reduce the spread of the fever, while the Department of Home Affairs is working with the PNG government in relation to import controls.
Minister Payne said Australia is providing technical, risk commu- nications, logistics and strategic co-ordination support through its Pa-
The government re- leased its $66.6 million ASF border security response package last year, and additional in- terventions of flights from PNG have been introduced in response to this detection.
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Page 6 – Australian Pork Newspaper, May 2020
www.porknews.com.au
by PETER HAYDON
Beef mince Chicken breast llets
Other proc meat Chicken pre-prepared
Pork bacon Unspeci ed sausages
Beef steak – prime Chicken drumsticks no wings
Beef sausages Chicken thigh llets
Pork roast Beef steak – other
Lamb roast/rack Chicken other
Other proc meat frankfurts Seafood other
Pork mince Other fresh meat
Beef pre-prepared Pork ribs and rashers